Stay Safe Arizona

"HammerheadFistpunch" (hammerheadfistpunch) 05/22/2020 at 00:07 • Filed to: None

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I realize a lot of this is Navajo Nation, which is unfortunate in its own right. Hopefully it’ s not as bad as the projections are looking.

We’re starting our 2nd week in the yellow and people are pretty much back to “normal” around here...though I still have my reservations about what that actually means as our case counts were the 2nd highest they’ve been. We’re not out of the woods yet. Sorry to be a downer, thats me I hear.

farscythe - makin da cawfee! > HammerheadFistpunch 05/22/2020 at 00:26

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*bounces*

Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo > HammerheadFistpunch 05/22/2020 at 00:40

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I am appalled at how political this all is. And how stupid people are. And how feckless our politicians.

wafflesnfalafel > HammerheadFistpunch 05/22/2020 at 00:53

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honestly, I was expecting that to happen to Atlanta.  Apparently I’m not a virologist....

TheRealBicycleBuck > HammerheadFistpunch 05/22/2020 at 09:34

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New cases. Two-day lag in reporting.

DipodomysDeserti > HammerheadFistpunch 05/22/2020 at 09:37

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Not sure what this YouTube video is showing. I knew about he outbreak at the UPS facility in Tucson a week ago and was neither alarmed nor surprised. Arizona is red? Yes, you can thank the Bidwells for that. I’d rather be purple and teal.

Had our grad ceremony last night and a student of mine, whose dad is a cardiologist (and my sister’s colleague), was sitting at his friend’s house through the whole thing. His dad met with our governor months ago   and was one of many voices urging a lockdown. As we learn more about this thing , opinions about how to handle it change.

The saguaros are still blooming, so we’ll be ok. Saw a coyote in my hood the other day while on my ride, and it let me know everything is working out alright.

DipodomysDeserti > TheRealBicycleBuck 05/22/2020 at 10:05

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Why would you even bother posting a graph like that? My middle school students would look at that and immediately ignore it as it offers no information. That’s Fox/CNN mindless shit.

DipodomysDeserti > farscythe - makin da cawfee! 05/22/2020 at 10:08

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From the guy who lives somewhere that never locked down...

farscythe - makin da cawfee! > DipodomysDeserti 05/22/2020 at 10:17

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eh... im amazed i aint dead yet....hell never even got sick yet.... perks of living in farmland i guess

we barely got the rona up here....so far

TheRealBicycleBuck > DipodomysDeserti 05/22/2020 at 10:41

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Fair enough.

The x axis is month/day . The y axis is number of new cases. The lines are a little more difficult to decipher - the dotted line is the daily count of new cases. The black line is a running 7-day average. The website that it was sourced from only provides that information in pop-ups that appear on mouse-over. It’s hard to catch those in a screenshot.

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > HammerheadFistpunch 05/22/2020 at 10:46

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Damn...

DipodomysDeserti > farscythe - makin da cawfee! 05/22/2020 at 11:06

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My sister has been working directly with corona patients, reusing a mask that she was told to keep in a paper bag, and none of us have gotten sick either. I work at three school, have around 200 students, and no one’s family in AZ has gotten sick. Lots of family in NY and NJ have gotten sick, and a few in WA, though.

Maybe we just know how to wash out hands and not cough on each other down here in the desert.

Funny story, when I was in college, there was a group of friends that threw house shows. One night, a band from the Netherlands was in town. The lead singer was sick, so they had a local kid step in for them. They all knew a bunch of Trial songs, so that’s the set they played, except they pronounced the name “Treeol”.

Another band set up on the other side of the house and we ended up doing a tag team set, alternating between bands. It was awesome. The other band was called George Moshington, and they only wrote American history themed songs. Almost none of their stuff can be found now because another band trademarked the name, and forced them to pull all their shit off the internet.

Some of their hits included “Seventeen Seventy Fuck You”, “Baberham Lincoln” and “Boston Teabag Party”. Not sure if the term is universal, but “teabagging” someone involves putting your balls on their face or in their mouth after they pass out at a party. We’re a classy bunch.

farscythe - makin da cawfee! > DipodomysDeserti 05/22/2020 at 11:16

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lol...im a gamer...im familiar with teabagging :p

also i might now be a fan of george moshington

DipodomysDeserti > TheRealBicycleBuck 05/22/2020 at 11:28

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Much better. So our rates of infection were increasing faster under our lockdown and seem to have stabilized under our opening. Interesting.

I’d be cautious to take anything away from this data, as it seems to fluctuate widely week, and the dates of data collection are pretty imprecise.

I’m guessing the green line is the national average?

TheRealBicycleBuck > DipodomysDeserti 05/22/2020 at 12:50

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The green line is R-naught.

I agree with your assessment. I think the fluctuations look an awful lot like they are  batch processing. It isn’t clear if those dates represent the date of collection or the date of a confirmed positive result. I suspect the latter. That would align with a number of remote locations all delivering their tests and the test center waiting to batch process them.

DipodomysDeserti > TheRealBicycleBuck 05/22/2020 at 13:16

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To be honest, I think our data is shit. I don’t think the testing has been ironed out. Look at Theranos for an example of how people can pass off total bullshit as legit testing.

While most of our state consists of remote locations, I doubt there’s any testing being done out in the boonies. People living out in remote areas of Arizona don’t give a shit about a virus, and most of our population lives in one valley.

I have a suspicion that we’re going to find out in a few years that the vast, vast majority of people dying from this were already sick with something. In a healthy ecosystem, that’s what should happen. It’s sad, but it’s one of the mechanisms that make our world such a great place. If people can’t deal with that, then they should make friends with Musk, Thiel, or any of these other psychos that for some reason think immortality is a good thing.

TheRealBicycleBuck > DipodomysDeserti 05/22/2020 at 13:36

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“I have a suspicion that we’re going to find out in a few years that the vast, vast majority of people dying from this were already sick with something. In a healthy ecosystem, that’s what should happen. It’s sad, but it’s one of the mechanisms that make our world such a great place”

That’s easier said when there’s no connection between you and people who are dying from it. My wife already lost a great-unc le and second cousin to it. It was much harder on her mom than her, but at least it drove home the message we were trying to send to my in-laws: stay home and stay safe. They’re retired, so that’s easy for them to do.

I’ve always known that our population would have a “correction” at some point. There’s never been a population curve which doesn’t take a downward turn even if it plateaus for a while.

This may be an indication that w e have hit the carrying capacity of the environment. As you surely are aware, carrying capacity isn’t always defined by the availability of food. It’s often defined by the spread of disease within the population. Once that capacity is hit, if we are lucky, the population numbers will fluctuate up and down around the capacity value instead of crashing.

DipodomysDeserti > TheRealBicycleBuck 05/22/2020 at 13:58

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People who lose loved ones have nothing but my sympathies. It absolutely fucking sucks, and nothing else in the world matters when it happens to you. Nothing else should matter when it happens to your friends and family, because they’re really all that matters in this world.

Life us fucking hard (not the advice I gave my graduating seniors, because you have to be eased into it; plenty of us aren’t, and it fucks us up). I tell them to assume that no one around them has any clue what they’re doing, b ut to love each other all the same.

TheRealBicycleBuck > DipodomysDeserti 05/22/2020 at 14:17

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It’s good advice. Our daughter is getting a big dose of reality. Her first challenge is navigating the bureaucracy of the university. The admissions people aren’t coordinating with the honors people and keep insisting she attend events required of regular students without realizing that she’s already met the requirements because she was accepted to the honors college and attended the required orientation, advising, and registration activities with them. They say in-state tuition will be granted before classes start in August, but I fully anticipate a big bill when we drop her off because someone hasn’t flipped the right switch in the registration system.

Sorry for the tangent. It’s been on my mind.

Back to the advice - it’s good advice and it’s timely. Love one another - just do it from at least 6' apart.

DipodomysDeserti > TheRealBicycleBuck 05/22/2020 at 14:41

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Right there with you on univ ersities. Mine tried to charge me $6k instead of $600 for taking online classes last semester. Then they tried telling me I needed to sign up for a continuing research class for the summer, despite me already being enrolled in the Fall.